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利率变动对房地产股票价格影响分析

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题 目: 利率变动对房地产股票价格影响分析 I 利率变动对房地产股票价格影响分析 摘要 利率是国家调节宏观经济走势的重要手段,利率的变动会影响到人们的投资 和消费行为,进而对经济的增长产生作用,而影响房地产股票价格变动的宏观因 素中,利率水*的变动对股价影响又是更为直接的,所以研究利率变动对房地产 股价的影响不仅有助于引导人们合理投资,而且促进金融市场的完善。本文为了 综合考虑各种因素,以反映房地产股价整体变动状况的上证地产股指数为研究对 象,分析从 2008 年到 2012 年每一次调息期间利率变动对房地产股票价格的影响, 看房地产股票价格指数对利率的敏感程度,以及运用 Eieves6.0 分析利率与房地 产股价长期的稳定关系,发现在短期内,利率对房地产股价的影响是毫无规律的, 在长期内,利率调整 270 天后,利率与房地产股价存在稳定的反向关系。 关键词: 利率调整;房地产股票价格;回归分析 II The variation of interest rate on real estate price impact analysis ABSTRACT The interest rate is a state regulation of macro economy important means, interest rate changes will affect the people's consumption and investment behavior, and then affect the economic growth and which influences the real estate price’s change in the macroscopic factors, the level of interest rates changes have an more direct effect on stock price , so the study on the variation of the interest rate on the real estate price impact not only helps to guide people to the rational investment, and promote the improvement of financial market. In this paper, in order to consider various factors, in order to reflect the real estate price whole change status of the real estate stock index as the research object, analysis from 2008 to 2012 every period interest rate changes on the real estate stock price's influence, the real estate stock price index to the interest rate sensitivity analysis, and the application of Eieves6.0 interest rate and real estate build a stable relationship. Key Words: Interest rate Real estate price Regression analysis III 目录 0 前言..............................................................1 1 股票市场的地位...................................................1 2 股票价格影响因素.................................................1 2.1 利率变动影响公司经营 .......................................1 2.2 利率变动引起资金流动 .......................................2 2.3 利率对投资者的影响 .........................................2 3 利率对股价的实际影响.............................................2 3.1 数据的采用及处理.............................................3 3.2 短期影响 ................................................... 3 3.3 长期影响 ................................................... 5 4 计量分析.........................................................5 4.1 数据的选取 ................................................. 5 4.2 数据的分析 ................................................. 6 5 结论与建议 ……………………………………………………………………………….7 5.1 完*鹑谑谐 ............................................... 8 5.2 利率市场化改革 ...........................................



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